The reality is that every single decision in your organization is a choice made under some uncertainty. In practice, we ultimately base every decision on possible outcomes and our best guesses about how things will play out in the future. We all agree that decision making should be based on objective data and analysis rather than intuition and subjective guesswork.
But there are two problems with this: First, it can be difficult to collect the data. Second, the data tells you about the past, but it tells you absolutely nothing about the future.
So how do you create data that will help you predict future events?
Luckily, there is a tool you can use for strategic middle east mobile number list planning that will help you more accurately predict the future and make better choices in the short and long term.
What is scenario planning?
Scenario planning makes assumptions about what the future will be and how your business environment will change over time in light of that future.
More precisely, scenario planning is identifying a specific set of uncertainties, different “realities” of what might happen in the future of your business.
It sounds superficial, but building this set of assumptions is probably the best thing you can do to help your organization in the long run.
For example, farmers use scenarios to predict whether a crop will be good or bad depending on the weather. This helps them forecast their sales, harvesting and storage costs, and their future investment in seed for the following year.
Military institutions use scenario planning in their operations and maneuvers to cope with any emergency, anticipating the consequences of each event. In this case, scenario planning is literally a matter of life and death.
Scenario planning in your organization can lead to reduced costs, reduced risks, and fewer missed opportunities.
How to use scenario planning?
The idea is simple: it's about identifying your critical uncertainties and developing plausible scenarios that outline how your company can best respond to potential challenges. If you understand what might happen, you're more likely to cope with what does happen.
The scenario development process consists of 4 important steps. After identifying the drivers and critical uncertainties for the coming months or years, the goal is to develop 4 different scenarios that are most likely. The best way to accomplish all these steps is to organize workshops among employees, led by a competent moderator, during which all participants brainstorm together, this will help you find creative solutions.
