Better economic situation in Germany according to PMI?
Posted: Mon Mar 17, 2025 4:29 am
This divergence in diagnosis is also confirmed in international comparison. According to the harmonised European business surveys of DG ECFIN, which INSEE collects for France, France is in a slightly less favourable situation than Italy or Spain but much better than Germany. Conversely, the PMIs indicate that France seems to be falling behind and would find itself in a situation as degraded as Germany ( Figure 2 ).
For 2023, comparing survey data with national accounts estimates appears to confirm the diagnosis from the INSEE and European Commission surveys. They therefore tend to invalidate the message from the PMIs. France thus female database experienced modest but positive growth in 2023, more favorable than in Germany (where GDP declined) and comparable to Italy.
It is important to understand the origin of this divergence between surveys because some forecasters, notably those at the European Central Bank, rely heavily on PMIs to support their economic diagnosis (see ECB, 2024 p. 43 and European Commission, 2017 ). To better understand, it is worth looking at the construction of these different indicators, which at first glance share many similarities.
For 2023, comparing survey data with national accounts estimates appears to confirm the diagnosis from the INSEE and European Commission surveys. They therefore tend to invalidate the message from the PMIs. France thus female database experienced modest but positive growth in 2023, more favorable than in Germany (where GDP declined) and comparable to Italy.
It is important to understand the origin of this divergence between surveys because some forecasters, notably those at the European Central Bank, rely heavily on PMIs to support their economic diagnosis (see ECB, 2024 p. 43 and European Commission, 2017 ). To better understand, it is worth looking at the construction of these different indicators, which at first glance share many similarities.