The scenario development process consists of 4 important steps. After identifying the drivers and critical uncertainties for the coming months or years, the goal is to develop 4 different scenarios that are europe cell phone number list most likely. The best way to accomplish all these steps is to organize workshops among employees, led by a competent moderator, during which all participants brainstorm together, this will help you find creative solutions.
4 scenarios are a small fraction of possible outcomes, but even they will be enough to be more prepared to solve emerging problems.
The process of creating your own scripts is very simple. You need to follow a few sequential steps.
Identify the driving forces that influence your business
To begin, you should discuss with colleagues, partners, and external experts what changes are most likely to occur in society, the economy, technology, and politics in the future, and anticipate how they will affect your company.
Identify critical uncertainty factors
Once you have identified your drivers and compiled a list, select only two of them (the ones that have the greatest impact on your business). For example, the two most important drivers of uncertainty for agribusiness companies are food prices and consumer demand .
Develop a range of plausible scenarios
The goal of the third step is to form a kind of matrix with the two critical uncertainties as axes. Depending on which direction each uncertainty takes, you can draw four possible scenarios for the future.
Discuss the consequences
At this final stage, you should discuss the various implications of each scenario and begin to review your strategy: set your mission and goals taking each scenario into account.
Some pitfalls to avoid when doing scenario planning
The huge number of possible developments of a situation can paralyze the will and demotivate. Do not try to embrace an unthinkable number of scenarios, build your hypotheses, focusing efforts on 2 uncertainties to begin with, then expand this number to four.
Another common mistake is to think that you must pick one specific scenario and build your strategy around it. Scenario planning is not about picking one option for the future, but about considering all possible outcomes to develop a strategy that will withstand the test of all the most likely futures.
When developing different scenarios, try not to look at the short term, such as your existing market, products or competitors. Don’t be afraid to look far ahead, anticipating what the market and competitors will be like in the coming years. In short, creativity is important in scenario planning.
