QUEUE THEORY IN PM: Now apply this theory to project management (PM),

[metoc15411]

The chart below shows the average maintenance effort required to produce user stories in a development project. It assumes variability in work items, as well as a first-in-first-out queue.

The column headings (0.25, 0.5, 1, 2, 3) represent the size of the work item in work days. Thus, work item 0.25 is estimated to take two hours, work item 0.5 is estimated to take four hours, and so on.

The rows represent the wait time (in hours) at different command usage levels.

A task that is estimated to take two hours at 80% capacity will wait in the queue for 1.5 hours and take 3.5 hours total (waiting time plus estimated time to complete).

However, the same two-hour work item at 99% utilization how does cash app work will wait in the queue for 37.1 hours and take 39.1 hours to complete.

Data showing how queue wait times increase based on the number of open work items, variability, and high load.
Waiting time increases in a queue depending on the number of open work items, volatility, and high load.

The diagram is based on the Kinsman queueing formula based on a queue of M/M/1/∞ with standard coefficients of variation. It assumes no queues and stable arrival and departure rates. ( Source - Full report available to Gartner clients)

The numbers are staggering. Especially when you realize that the chart doesn't account for things like misjudging the level of effort, making a mistake during execution, or emergencies requiring a change in priorities.

When sudden changes like this occur, the wait time becomes even longer, affecting not only the immediate work item, but the entire queue of items waiting to be completed.

OPTIMAL USE OF RESOURCES. According to Handler, the sweet spot for productivity is between 70% and 80% utilization. Above 80%, wait times increase exponentially, which means delays and higher costs. People are more likely to make mistakes, which means lower quality.

Remember that "use" is akin to "busy." It is not synonymous with effort.

So the recommendation to use 80% does not mean that project teams should put in 80% of the effort and then leave early at 3pm. The recommendation is that companies schedule their turn so that teams are 80% engaged (this is top-down and bottom-up effort).

Your next question is probably, “What do we do with the other 20%?”

The short answer is that you do nothing with the other 20%. It's the slack that makes the system work. It's what allows you to do what you say you're going to do.

In a perfect world, every estimate would be accurate. But, as Handler argues, “estimates are inherently wrong.”

“People are subject to what’s called overconfidence bias. In the project world, this means they systematically underestimate costs, time, and risks and overestimate benefits.”

Robert Handler, Gartner Analyst

Leaving reserves in the system is a buffer for these miscalculations. It also creates a buffer for changes or things that happen outside of the planned work and affect the queue.

You can follow Google's lead and leave 20% open for personal projects and innovation (which led to the development of Google News, Gmail, and AdSense).

Or, if you're really concerned about "downtime," you can create a lower priority work queue that employees can pull from if they complete their scheduled work early.

[yadaysrdone]

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