Crisis — a growth point? About antifragility, or Why the worse, the better

[jisansorkar12]

One of the quotes from the ancient Roman poet Juvenal: "A rare bird on earth is like a black swan." He was talking about something as rare and almost impossible as a black swan.

After all, even if you ask someone to imagine a swan, most likely, the image of a beautiful snow-white bird will appear in their imagination. Few people can imagine a swan of a different color. Moreover: until the 17th century, it was believed that they were exclusively white. But later, Dutch researchers discovered a whole population of black swans in Western Australia. In general, what is all this about: our knowledge is limited and there are things that we cannot know in advance and predict them.

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How the Black Swan Became Popular


The expression about a black swan became popular thanks to the American writer and risk manager Nassim Taleb , who wrote a series of books about the role of chance in business and life. His second book, “The Black Swan: The Unpredictability of the Future,” is the most famous. In it, he describes the chances that we cannot predict, but which have a strong influence on us: terrorist attacks, financial crises, wars, and other large-scale events. These are the same black swans that are beyond our knowledge. Such events are distinguished by three features:

A surprise even for experts and an unpredictable development.
Destructive or other significant consequences. Such a black swan changes the usual way of life.
And, what is most interesting, there is a rational justification for these events. They do not just happen, but are a logical consequence of something. It is just that few could have predicted such an outcome.
Let's remember the attack on the Twin Towers on September 9, 2001. No one could have imagined that a terrorist attack of such scale was even possible in the very center of New York - it was practically unrealistic. Here's a classic black swan for you.

However, not always an event that can be called a black swan necessarily carries danger. For example, the emergence of the Internet can be called a swan, the emergence of which could not be predicted, but which certainly turned our lives upside down.

Why do black swans appear?
Firstly, because we believe those we trust. That is, if one opinion is widespread in our environment, we will most likely adhere to it, rejecting the rest.
Secondly, because we are used to making predictions based on past experience. But, as we have already said, there are things that are beyond our knowledge and ability to predict.
After all, the same terrorist attack on September 9 could have been avoided, for example, by strengthening airport security and passenger screening procedures. But the event itself seemed unrealistic, so all these measures were eventually taken, but, alas, after the tragedy.

How Antifragility Counters the Black Swan
Black swans are indeed difficult to deal with. But overcoming unexpected difficulties is a must-have skill for a good leader. It is impossible to predict all the risks that will put a business at risk. Therefore, to survive, you do not need to strive to be invulnerable - you need to be antifragile.

Actually, "Antifragility" is the title of another book by Nassim Taleb. Its idea is not just to adapt to chaos or black swans, but to use them to your advantage. That is, the book is about the ability to look at any crisis as an opportunity for growth, and it is precisely the ability to be antifragile that helps to see new opportunities.